Will mortgage rates go any lower?
Mortgage rates are expected to decline later this year as the U.S. economy weakens, inflation slows and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the low-6% range through the end of 2024, dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future. This is due to a combination of factors, including: Higher Inflation: Inflation is currently at a 40-year high in the US, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat it.
Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 5.9% and 6.1% in 2024.
Tracker mortgage repayments are usually tied to the base rate plus a certain percentage. So, if the base rate rises by 0.25% for example, your repayments will increase by this amount. If the base rate goes down, you could pay less.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates by a cumulative 0.75 percentage points to 1 point in 2024, investment strategists said Wednesday. The Fed will likely achieve a so-called “soft landing” as it navigates interest rate policy, they said.
Mortgage rates are expected to decline later this year as the U.S. economy weakens, inflation slows and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the low-6% range through the end of 2024, dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
Higher interest rates typically have two effects on the housing market that can help drive down prices: They price some buyers out of the market, which is good for the buyers who remain, and they typically have the effect of putting downward pressure on housing prices, which is good for buyers.
Predictions for the 2024 real estate market
You're not alone if you're still pondering: Is it a good time to buy a house? Predictions from Zillow suggest that the average home value is anticipated to increase by approximately 4.9% in 2024. It's important to note that these forecasts may differ based on location.
If all goes well, by the time 2025 comes around, we could see mortgage rates closer to 6%, or maybe even lower. But, unfortunately, there's no guarantee.” “I expect we will end the year with rates at about 6% to 6.2% -- much higher than during the pandemic but still relatively low by historical standards.”
Our Chart of the Day is from Goldman Sachs, which plots the firm's expectation that the 30-year mortgage rate will stay above 6% through 2025. Goldman said it expects 30-year mortgage rates will drop to 6.3% by the end of 2024, and fall slightly in 2025 to 6% as the Fed starts to cut interest rates.
Will mortgage rates go back to normal?
Overall, forecasters expect mortgage rates to continue easing. The Mortgage Bankers Association projects rates to fall to 6.1 percent by year's end, while Fannie Mae forecasts they'll be at 5.8 percent. The National Association of Realtors estimates rates will average 5.9 percent for the full year.
The answer to this, almost always, is that you should overpay – if you have the choice. Decreasing the term sounds sensible, and does almost exactly the same job that overpaying does – both mean you pay more each month, you pay less interest, and your mortgage is paid off sooner.
The benefit of a fixed-rate mortgage is that your interest rate stays consistent. But your monthly mortgage bill can still change — in fact, it generally fluctuates at least a little bit every year. Rising home values and insurance premiums have caused unusually dramatic increases for some homeowners in recent years.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
In December, the median Fed forecast called for three rate cuts in 2024.
Instead, we'll probably see some gradual 25-basis-point cuts here and there. If that happens, rates could fall to closer to 6% by the end of 2024. Channel expects rates to remain high compared to the levels seen during the height of the coronavirus pandemic, when average 30-year mortgage rates were around 2.65%.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
Mortgage rates change all the time. So a good mortgage rate could look drastically different from one day to the next. Right now, good mortgage rates for a 15-year fixed loan generally start in the low-6% range, while good rates for a 30-year mortgage typically start in the high-6% range.
Legally speaking, there's no limit to how many times you can refinance your mortgage, so you can refinance as often as it makes financial sense for you. Depending on your lender and the type of loan, though, you might encounter a waiting period — also called a seasoning requirement.
For most homebuyers, a down payment of less than 20 percent will generally cost more money in the long run. But if saving up that kind of money will keep you from ever owning a home, it's worth considering.
What is the interest rate today?
| Product | Interest rate | APR |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed-rate | 6.773% | 6.856% |
| 20-year fixed-rate | 6.621% | 6.726% |
| 15-year fixed-rate | 6.067% | 6.208% |
| 10-year fixed-rate | 5.821% | 6.023% |
Potentially lower mortgage rates: Experts predict a slight decrease in mortgage rates in 2024. Lower rates can translate to lower monthly payments and potentially more buying power for first-time buyers.
While it's true that recessions can create opportunities to purchase homes at potentially lower prices, it's not guaranteed. Waiting for a recession to buy a house may not be the best strategy as home prices could remain high regardless of a recession.
- West Virginia is the cheapest state to buy a house in 2024.
- Alabama has the lowest property tax rate of the top 10 cheapest states to buy a home.
- Most of the top 10 states have median home values under $200,000.
The mortgage rate forecast for 2024 is that rates are expected to go down, based on current predictions, although it may take longer than had previously been hoped. And there may be fluctuations as we've seen in February and March 2024 when fixed mortgage rates increased after many months of falling.
