Is Tesla a good long term stock?
Wall Street expects Tesla earnings per share of just $3.02 a share in 2024, according to FactSet. That would be more than a 2% decline vs. last year's $3.12. That was a 23% decline vs. 2022. Analyst project a solid increase in 2025 to $4.13 a share.
Fair Value Estimate for Tesla
We forecast automotive gross margins will be 18% in 2024, in line with 2023 results. In the longer term, we assume Tesla will deliver a little over 5 million vehicles per year in 2030. This includes fleet sales, an expanding opportunity for the firm.
Langan predicts that Tesla's growth will remain flat this year and then decline in 2025 as competition increases, deliveries disappoint and the beleaguered auto and tech company is forced to cut prices again. UBS also downgraded its forecast for Tesla on Wednesday.
The manager of the Baron Focused Growth Fund expects Tesla's stock to reach $1,200 by 2030, up 550% from current levels, citing its strong brand. Tesla and Musk's privately held SpaceX were the fund's largest holdings as of December 31.
Tesla Shares: A Fair Value Estimate
With its 3-star rating, we believe Tesla's shares are fairly valued compared to our long-term fair value estimate. In 2024, we forecast Tesla will see a far slower growth rate, with deliveries increasing just 10% to a little under 2 million, from a little over 1.8 million in 2023.
With 2023 in the rearview mirror, analyst consensus now has 2024 Tesla earnings below 2023's level, signaling another year of negative growth for this growth stock. Wall Street expects Tesla earnings per share of just $3.03 a share in 2024, according to FactSet.
- Nvidia. Tech stocks have surged over the last year thanks to a boom in AI. ...
- Amazon. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is a tech behemoth with a market cap of $1.8 billion, making it the world's fifth most valuable company.
Wall Street expects Tesla earnings per share of just $3.02 a share in 2024, according to FactSet. That would be more than a 2% decline vs. last year's $3.12. That was a 23% decline vs. 2022. Analyst project a solid increase in 2025 to $4.13 a share.
The S&P 500 index had an average annual return of 11.8% between 1957 and 2021. If Tesla stock were to grow at this average rate until 2040, TSLA stock would be worth $1,541 in 2040. This would be more than 4x the stock's current all-time high price of $407.
| Ticker | Company | Performance (Year) |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | 287.22% |
| SOUN | SoundHound AI Inc | 267.76% |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc | 177.62% |
| AVAV | AeroVironment Inc. | 79.01% |
How much $10 000 invested in Tesla stock 10 years ago is worth now?
If you invested $10,000 with founder Elon Musk 10 years ago, your stake would be worth $2.1 million now. That works out to a more than 70% average annual return. The same $10,000 put into the S&P 500 during that time grew just 274% to $37,376.
This means that your $1,000 10 years ago — technically, $1,002 — would have bought 60 shares of Tesla. As of Mar. 3, 2024, those 60 shares of Tesla would be worth $12,158.40. That marks a 28.342% annual rate of return.
Meanwhile, Tesla enthusiast Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities considers investors' bearishness to be overdone, suggesting that the EV-maker's stock could bounce back 77% in 12 months. To achieve this, Ives emphasized that Musk's compensation package should be improved, while his control of shares should be raised.
Short-Term Analysis
According to our system of comparison, TSLA is a better buy in the short-term than AAPL.
From a fiscal-2023 base, we forecast Tesla earnings per share grow at a 27% compound annual growth rate through fiscal 2030, achieving $5/share in late fiscal 2025, $10/share in late fiscal 2027, and $15/share by mid fiscal 2029.
Key Takeaways. Shares of Tesla fell as Wells Fargo said the EV maker is likely to see no sales growth in 2024. The bank cut its rating on the stock to underweight and lowered its price target to $125 from $200. Tesla's struggling to sell cars even as it lowers prices in various markets, and that's affecting its profit.
Shares in Elon Musk's electric vehicle maker fell sharply after the company delivered lackluster quarterly results and declined to give full-year guidance.
ARK's updated open-source Tesla model yields an expected value per share of $4,600 in 2026. The bull and bear cases, tuned to the 75th and 25th percentile Monte Carlo outcomes respectively, are approximately $5,800 and $2,900 per share, as shown below.
As mentioned above, a few factors are impacting the Tesla share price, including demand and production concerns. Competition in China is also a factor. In a note this week, Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC ) analysts described Tesla as “a growth company with no growth.”
| Stock Name | Sub-sector | Market Cap (in Cr) |
|---|---|---|
| Titan Company Ltd | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | ₹3,28,263 |
| Varun Beverages Ltd | Beverages | ₹1,66,364 |
| Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Ltd | Financials | ₹99,434 |
| Tube Investments of India Ltd | Consumer Discretionary | ₹75,379 |
Which stock will grow in 10 years?
| S.No. | Name | CMP Rs. |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | KMC Speciality | 79.67 |
| 2. | Advani Hotels. | 159.80 |
| 3. | Man Infra | 186.10 |
| 4. | Integra Engg. | 206.95 |
| S.No. | Name | Qtr Sales Var % |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Ksolves India | 38.81 |
| 2. | Life Insurance | 8.32 |
| 3. | Remedium Life | 939.31 |
| 4. | Tips Industries | 27.17 |
The newest price target for Tesla shares for Tesla came in April 2023, with a call for the stock price to hit $2,000 in 2027 and the company's market capitalization to hit $4.4 trillion. The bear-and-bull case for Tesla stock from Ark Invest are $1,400 and $2,500, respectively, for the same time period.
When it comes to the Tesla stock price forecast for 2050, Tesla stock would be trading at $3,360 in 2050 if it were to grow at the same 11.1% average rate as the S&P 500. If TSLA were to grow at the same rate as the Nasdaq 100's 15.2% average annual return, it would be worth $8,873 by 2050.
The long-term forecasts for Tesla's stock value in 2025 show a wide range of analyst expectations, from over $550 to as high as $1100 per share. These projections account for various factors, including Tesla's market performance, EBITDA margins, and the expansion of the electric vehicle market.
