Interest rates play a pivotal role in shaping the economic landscape, influencing factors such as inflation and financial markets. The Federal Reserve, commonly known as the Fed, serves as the central bank of the US, determining the target for the federal-funds rate. This rate signifies the interest that banks charge each other for overnight loans. The federal-funds rate, in turn, ripples through other interest rates like the 10-year Treasury yield, representing the return on a 10-year government bond, and the 30-year mortgage rate, the average interest rate for a 30-year home loan.
As of December 2023, the Fed's projections indicate to maintain the federal funds rate to 5.25% by the end of 2023, maintaining this level through 2025. However, differing opinions exist regarding the duration of the Fed's tightening of monetary policy and the potential for a shift towards lowering interest rates.
Here's an overview of the current situation, possible scenarios, and expert opinions.
The policymakers expect rates to stay above 5% in 2024 and around 4% by the end of 2025.
Possible Scenarios
Rates Could Go Down
If inflation falls significantly, the Fed might ease its stance and start cutting rates in late 2024 or early 2025.
A severe economic downturn could also force the Fed to lower rates to stimulate borrowing and growth.
Rates Could Stay High
If inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed might keep rates elevated throughout 2025.
A stronger-than-expected economy could also lead to continued rate hikes.
Expert Opinions
Some experts believe rates will start falling in 2024-2025, but not as much as markets anticipate.
Others warn that the Fed might keep raising rates into 2025, surprising markets and hurting the economy.
Ultimately, the decision depends on the Fed's assessment of inflation and economic data in the coming months.
Other Forecasts on Interest Rates
One outlook is offered by Trading Economics, a platform specializing in economic data and analysis. According to their predictions based on recent data, Trading Economics anticipates the interest rate to descend to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025. Their forecast suggests that the Fed may need to reduce interest rates in response to a slowdown in economic growth and a decline in inflation.
Another perspective comes from Morningstar, a financial services company offering investment research and advice. Analyst Preston Caldwellcontends that political pressure will mount on the Fed to ease monetary policy as inflation moderates and unemployment rises. He predicts a commencement of interest rate cuts in 2024, bringing them down to 2% by the close of 2025. Caldwell posits that reduced interest rates will contribute to a bolstered economic growth and increased housing demand in 2024 and 2025.
So, will interest rates go down in 2025 in the US? The answer hinges on individual perspectives and assumptions about the economy, inflation, and the Fed's course of action.
While the Fed's own projections suggest sustained high interest rates until 2025, analysts and economists vary in their forecasts, foreseeing the possibility of lower interest rates in 2024 and 2025. As with any forecast, uncertainties and risks persist, underscoring the importance of vigilance and staying informed about potential changes or surprises through continuous monitoring of data and news.
Here are some resources where you can follow the latest developments:
Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: "Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%," says Haymore. "By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower."
Mortgage rates are expected to decline later this year as the U.S. economy weakens, inflation slows and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid- to low-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
The nation's top economists say the Fed is most likely to keep interest rates higher than 2.5 percent — often considered the “goldilocks,” not-too-tight, not-too-loose level for its benchmark federal funds rate — until the end of 2026, Bankrate's quarterly economists' poll found.
We project the federal-funds rate target range to fall from 5.25% to 5.50% currently to 4.00% to 4.25% by the end of 2024, to 2.50% to 2.75% by the end of 2025, and to 1.75% to 2.00% by end of 2026, after which the Fed will be done cutting.
The prediction would see the RBA cash rate fall from 4.35 per cent to 3.6 per cent by December, and down to 2.85 per cent by mid-2025. Interest rates have skyrocketed from a record low of 0.10 per cent since May 2022, adding $1,349 more per month to repayments on a $600,000 mortgage.
Highest Projection for Q4 2025: The Bank of England predicts interest rates in 2025 will stabilise at 3.4%. Lowest Lowest Projection for Q4 2025: 30 Rates anticipates a significant drop to 1.75%. Highest Projection for 2026: Money To The Masses sees rates at 3.74%.
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter.Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
While it's not possible to make accurate UK mortgage rate predictions for the next 5 years, the Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast that mortgage rates on average are expected to rise from a low of 2% in 2021 to a peak of 5% in 2027 across all properties.
For the week ending April 4, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.82%, according to Freddie Mac. Despite mortgage rates remaining stubbornly high, most housing market experts expect them to recede over 2024, assuming the Federal Reserve acts on its signaled interest rate cuts.
The bottom line. Today's elevated mortgage rate environment isn't preferable for homebuyers, but it doesn't mean that you should refrain from acting, either. If you discover your dream home, can afford the interest rate, find an affordable house, or have an alternative to rent, it can be worth it for you now.
The Fed raised the rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023 to combat ongoing inflation. After its December 2023 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) predicted making three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024 to lower the federal funds rate to 4.6%.
The lowest interest rate for a mortgage in history came in 2020 and 2021. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns, the 30-year fixed rate dropped under 3% for the first time since 1971, when Freddie Mac first began surveying mortgage lenders.
The Fed raised the rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023 to combat ongoing inflation. After its December 2023 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) predicted making three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024 to lower the federal funds rate to 4.6%.
After the initial expected Fed rate cuts, savings account rates could fall even more heading into 2025, some experts say. "As many analysts predict, the Fed is likely to start cutting rates later in 2024 and continue in 2025.
Introduction: My name is Stevie Stamm, I am a colorful, sparkling, splendid, vast, open, hilarious, tender person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.
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