U.S. College Enrollment Decline: Facts and Figures | BestColleges (2024)

College enrollment has been declining since 2010. Learn more about college enrollment trends and COVID-19's impact on enrollment.

College enrollment has fallen since the start of the pandemic, but it's actually been trending downward for the past decade or more. For some colleges, enrollment declines hurt their revenue and, therefore, what offerings they can provide students.

Different factors impact college enrollment, like falling birth rates, rising college tuition, and the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This report covers long-term enrollment patterns, the recent decline, and some of the causes behind this dip.

College Enrollment Decline: 1980s-2020s

After increasing for decades, undergraduate college enrollment peaked in 2010 at around 18.1 million students, according to data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES).^{Note Reference [1]} From there, it declined steadily. In fall 2021, about 15.4 million students were enrolled in college.

Undergraduate college enrollment decline statistics:

• Between 1985-2010, college enrollment increased at an average rate of 2.2% a year.
• From 2011-2021, it decreased at an average rate of 1.6% a year.
• In 2021, it was 14.6% down from peak enrollment in 2010.

College Enrollment Decline by School Type

When you look at enrollment by school type — two-year and four-year, public and private — you'll find that only certain types of schools were driving the overall college enrollment decline before the pandemic.^{Note Reference [1]}

• Two-year public colleges lost 38% of their enrollment between 2010 and 2021.
• Two-year private for-profit colleges lost about 59% of their enrollment in the same period.
• Four-year private for-profit colleges lost about 54% of their enrollment.
• Enrollment grew at four-year public colleges (by 15.1%) and four-year nonprofit colleges (by 2.7%).

Two-year private schools appear in a separate graph due to their lower enrollment numbers.

Pandemic College Enrollment Decline: 2019-2023

The undergraduate college enrollment decline has accelerated since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Public institutions — especially two-year colleges — experienced the steepest declines.

International enrollment and transfer enrollment also saw sharp declines during the pandemic.

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) found that between fall 2019 and fall 2023:^{Note Reference [3]}

• Postsecondary institutions lost about 750,000 unduplicated students, or about 4% of total enrollment.
• Undergraduate student enrollment fell by over 900,000 students, or almost 6% of total enrollment.
• However, graduate student enrollment grew by about 140,000 students, or by nearly 5%.

By fall 2023, undergraduate enrollment increased for the first time since before the pandemic. However, it has not fully returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Enrollment declined the most at two-year public schools; it increased at four-year private for-profit schools.^{Note Reference [3]}

COVID-19's Impact on College Plans

In an experimental study conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, the majority of adults who had household members enrolled in college for the fall 2021 term said that their school plans changed.^[5]

• 32% said their classes would occur in different formats.
• 16% canceled all plans to attend.
• 12% took fewer classes.
• Other changes respondents reported included changing their degree (5%), switching schools (3%), or taking more classes (2%).

Those whose plans were canceled cited multiple reasons, including getting COVID-19 and changes in financial aid. But the most popular reason was finances. Almost half (48%) of respondents whose plans were canceled reported an inability to pay for educational expenses because of the pandemic.^{Note Reference [4]}

• Having or fear of getting COVID-19 (38%)
• Uncertainty about upcoming program changes (28%)
• A class format change at their school, for example, switching to online classes (20%)
• Changes to financial aid (20%)

But the most popular was finances. Almost half (48%) of respondents whose plans were canceled reported an inability to pay for educational expenses because of the pandemic.

Additionally, income level was correlated to a need to change college plans during the pandemic.^{Note Reference [5]}

• Among households making over $150,000 a year, 57% had no change in plans to attend college classes — 13 percentage points above the average.
• In households making under $50,000, just 37% planned to carry on their education without making a change — 7 percentage points below average.
• Almost a quarter of households making less than $25,000 a year canceled all their college plans — compared to less than 10% of households making $100,000 or more a year.

Additionally, a 2023 ACT report found that students from low-income families were more than twice as likely as other students to question their decision to attend college.

College Enrollment Rate Over Time

In 2021, the percentage of all U.S. residents between 18-24 enrolled in college was 38.1%, the lowest it's been since 2006.^[6] In 2022, the college enrollment rate was 39%, which is still low compared to the previous decade.

Additionally, the percentage of recent high school graduates enrolled in college was around the lowest it's been in years. In 2022, 62% of high school grads enrolled in college versus 70% in 2009.^[7]

What's Causing the College Enrollment Decline?

Before the pandemic, people in the largest college-going age group were going to college at about the same rate as they were 10 years ago. So why is college enrollment declining? And what does the future of higher education hold?

To answer that, you'll have to look further back. Following an economic recession in the early 1990s, the U.S. birth rate fell.^[8] This could explain a college enrollment decline about 18 years later.

The birth rate dropped again during the 2007-2009 recession. For this reason, experts predict another enrollment drop — or "cliff" — after 2025.

Frequently Asked Questions About the College Enrollment Decline