Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast for 2024: Will Rates Go Down? (2024)

The current mortgage interest rates forecast is for rates to continue going down over the course of the year. After spiking to 7.79% last October, rates finally began to drop — diving below 7% in just seven weeks, and then settling in for another nine weeks below that threshold. Rates are moving upward slightly as we enter March, but there’s no reason to expect them to skyrocket.

While there are no guarantees, our market expert recommends cautious optimism as we enter 2024. Progress on inflation, as well as signs from the Federal Reserve that rate cuts may be on the horizon, point to the possibility that rates could stay under 7% for most of the year. If inflation does continue to fall without the broader economy taking a jarring hit, interest rates are likely to remain low and give the housing market a chance to finally pick up steam.

Mortgage rates have held steady so far this year, landing at 6.94% during the final week of February, according to the Feb. 29, 2024, Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®.

At their first meeting of 2024, the Federal Reserve chose not to raise interest rates, putting even more ground between themselves and the last hike — now more than seven months in the rearview mirror.

That decision, combined with recent hints from several Federal Reserve members that inflation may finally be coming under control, has investors and market-watchers abuzz. Everyone’s looking ahead to a potential end to the Fed’s cycle of rate hikes.

That said, the Fed isn’t expected to start cutting rates until the summer. Since inflation remains elevated, the Fed has to hold off on making any cuts a bit longer or risk making inflation worse. And, even when the Fed does start to cut rates, we shouldn’t expect a dramatic reduction, according to Jacob Channel, LendingTree’s senior economist. Instead, we’ll probably see some gradual 25-basis-point cuts here and there. If that happens, rates could fall to closer to 6% by the end of 2024.

Channel expects rates to remain high compared to the levels seen during the height of the coronavirus pandemic, when average 30-year mortgage rates were around 2.65%. Those record lows, as nice as they were, might not ever be seen again in our lifetimes, Channel says.

Will home affordability improve in March?

Although March doesn’t contain any of the best days of the year to buy a home, it isn’t an overly expensive time of year to purchase, either. That said, home shoppers looking for a window of opportunity in today’s very expensive housing market may be disappointed. They aren’t likely to see significantly better affordability in March than they did throughout 2023 — at least not yet. That’s because, no matter what interest rates are doing, home prices remain high and have been steadily increasing since February 2023.

The recent decrease in mortgage rates has helped move the needle slightly, but until rates and home prices start to drop, we’ll likely see affordability remain low, Channel says. So far, even with the recent dip in rates at the end of 2023, low housing supply continues to drive up home prices. The national median mortgage payment has risen by $135 over the last year, and now sits at a hefty $2,055.

Compared to this time last year, home sales remain quite low due to those high rates and the “mortgage rate lock-in” effect, which makes homeowners reluctant to sell, driving down inventory. Nearly 60% of existing homeowners have mortgages with rates below 4%, which represents savings of around $66,000 over the life of the loan compared to current rates. That’s why they’ll likely need to see rates come down further before feeling like it’s time to venture back into the market.

Mortgage rates this week

Current average rates are calculated using all conditional loan offers presented to consumers nationwide by LendingTree’s network partners on the previous day for each combination of loan program, loan term and loan amount. Rates and other loan terms are subject to lender approval and not guaranteed. Not all consumers may qualify. See LendingTree’s Terms of Use for more details.

Refinancing doesn’t make sense for most homeowners sitting on the low rates they locked in before 2022. That’s when the market began its march upward — moving ever further from the sanguine rates of 2021 which, even at their highest point, barely exceeded 3%.

The unfriendly conditions for refinancing are currently reflected in the number of refinance applications, which are 11% lower than the previous week, according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey for the week ending Feb. 16, 2024. Potential borrowers may be reacting to the small but distinct upturn in rates that began the first week of the month. With rates headed back toward 7%, borrowers don’t appear to be in a rush to refinance.

There are a few niche circ*mstances when a refinance might make sense, such as refinancing an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) to a fixed-rate loan, Channel adds.

Current refinance rates for March 2024

Current average rates are calculated using all conditional loan offers presented to consumers nationwide by LendingTree’s network partners on the previous day for each combination of loan program, loan term and loan amount. Rates and other loan terms are subject to lender approval and not guaranteed. Not all consumers may qualify. See LendingTree’s Terms of Use for more details.

“In the longer run, cooling inflation and an end to the Fed’s current rate-hiking cycle should help bring mortgage rates down,” says Channel. “Don’t assume that rates are guaranteed to stay under 7%, but do recognize that factors like slowing inflation growth point to rates falling in 2024.”

On the other hand, hot inflation, additional pressure on rates from the Fed and waning demand for U.S. bonds could push rates higher, he added.

Ultimately, Channel urges homebuyers to focus on what they can afford in the current market rather than obsessing over the future. It’s impossible to time the market, but borrowers only need to concern themselves with securing affordable payments, not a “perfect” rate.

How to get the best mortgage rates

1. Boost your credit score

Pay your bills on time, minimize your credit card balances and avoid opening several new credit accounts at once. You’ll get the best conventional mortgage rates with a 780 credit score or higher.

Learn more about ways to boost your credit score.

2. Compare rates from multiple lenders

LendingTree data consistently show that consumers who shop around for mortgage rates typically save money. Get a loan estimate from three to five different mortgage lenders and compare the rates and terms you’re offered.

Learn more about our picks for the best mortgage lenders.

3. Consider paying points

A mortgage point costs 1% of your loan amount, and paying for points allows you to buy a cheaper interest rate. Read the fine print if you see an online rate that looks lower than what other lenders are offering — there’s a good chance you’ll have to pay points to get it.