12-Team Half PPR Draft Strategy (Fantasy Draft Guide) (2024)

By Jared Smola | Updated on Thu, 18 Jul 2024 . 9:45 PM EDT

What's Your 12-Team Half PPR Draft Strategy?

Fantasy drafts are tough. There are a ton of variables to consider each time you’re on the clock:

• Scoring system
• Positional value
• Team needs
• ADP
• Upside
• Injury risk

It’s easy to be overwhelmed and make costly draft mistakes.

And is there anything worse than seeing your top picks falter while your opponents land the late-round league winners?

The solution: A round-by-round draft strategy guide to maximize value with every pick.

The 12-team Half PPR draft strategy guide below will take you through top targets and secondary options for every pick of your draft.

We’re using our 3D Values and current ADP to pinpoint the best picks in each round.

Consider this your game plan heading into your draft.

No fantasy football draft goes exactly as planned, of course. You’ll likely need to adjust your half PPR draft strategy throughout the proceedings to maximize value.

That’s where the customized, dynamic fantasy football cheat sheet on your Draft War Room comes into play, instantly analyzing 17 value indicators each time you’re on the clock to help you make the best pick.

Combine the Draft War Room with this round-by-round game plan, and you’ll be armed with the ultimate Half PPR fantasy football draft guide.

Note: This strategy guide assumes a 16-round draft and starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1 DST. The Draft War Room will help you adjust your strategy if your league settings are different.

Half PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 1, 2, or 3

Round 1

Top target: CeeDee Lamb

It’s Lamb -- not Christian McCaffrey -- topping our Half PPR rankings.

The Cowboy is coming off a massive 2023 season, leading all WRs in Half PPR points. He’s grown his target share and yards per route run each season, is in his prime at 25, and returns to the same offense with the same QB in 2024.

It all makes Lamb arguably the safest pick in fantasy football.

Next best: Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey’s 22.6 Half PPR points per game last year were 2.5 more than any other RB. He set career highs in multiple categories, including:

• Yards per carry
• Yards after contact per attempt
• Missed tackles forced per attempt

McCaffrey is still only 28 and should still have at least one more big fantasy season in him.

The only downside: Our Injury Predictor gives him a 63.6% chance of injury and 3.0 projected games missed this season.

Other option

• Tyreek Hill

Rounds 2 & 3

Top targets: Derrick Henry & Travis Etienne

It makes sense to grab a pair of RBs at this turn, especially if you took a stud WR in Round 1.

Henry remained effective as a workhorse last year, ranking top five in carries (280), rushing yards (1,167), and rushing TDs (12). Now he get a big upgrade in supporting cast in Baltimore, where the Ravens have finished top seven in points in all three seasons QB Lamar Jackson has made 13+ starts.

Etienne is coming off a RB4 finish in Half PPR points, tallying the fourth-most carries and seventh-most targets among RBs. Tank Bigsby will need to be much better this season to take significant work from Etienne, a 25-year-old former first-round pick.

Next Best: De’Von Achane & Deebo Samuel

Achane’s 11 games last year included Half PPR explosions of:

• 49.3 points
• 25.5 points
• 23.8 points
• 23.0 points
• 21.7 points

The 188-pounder will never be a high-volume back. But he doesn’t need to be to deliver bunches of fantasy points thanks to his big-play ability. Achane averaged a huge 7.8 yards per carry and took 13 of his 103 attempts (12.6%) for 15+ yards last year.

Samuel finished 13th among WRs in total Half PPR points last year; ninth in points per game. He remains one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football – but also a good bet for WR1-level production when he’s on the field.

Other options

• Jalen Hurts
• Isiah Pacheco
• Jaylen Waddle

Rounds 4 & 5

Top targets: Cooper Kupp & Joe Mixon

Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between him and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests.

In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94. Kupp's 111.9 Half PPR points per game in those outings ranked 20th among WRs.

The Texans traded for Mixon this offseason and then signed him to a three-year, $27 million extension. That all points to Mixon operating as the clear lead back for a Texans offense that could be among the league’s best in QB C.J. Stroud's second season.

Next Best: Mark Andrews & Tee Higgins

Andrews still looks like an elite fantasy TE. His Half PPR scoring average in nine healthy games last year would have led the position. And his 1.96 yards per route run ranked third among 33 TEs with 40+ targets. He’s now ranked top 6 in YPRR at his position in all six of his NFL seasons.

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He's an easy bounce-back bet this year with better health for both he and QB Joe Burrow.

Don't forget that Higgins ranked top-14 in Half PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022. He's still just 25.

Other options

• Anthony Richardson
• Ken Walker
• James Cook
• D.K. Metcalf
• Trey McBride

Rounds 6 & 7

Top targets: Rhamondre Stevenson & Chris Godwin

After a slow start last year, Stevenson scored as a top-15 RB over his final six healthy games. The four-year, $36 million extension he signed earlier this offseason indicates that New England's new coaching staff views Stevenson as their lead back, despite the addition of RB Antonio Gibson.

Godwin scored just twice last year but ranked 15th among WRs in catches (83) and 23rd in receiving yards (1,024). Better TD luck will make him a substantial value in 2024 fantasy drafts.

Next Best: Dak Prescott & David Montgomery

Prescott’s future in Dallas beyond 2024 might be uncertain, but he’s a strong fantasy value for this year. He's coming off a QB3 finish and returns his top three targets in WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Jake Ferguson, and WR Brandin Cooks.

Montgomery ranked 12th among RBs in Half PPR points per game last year. He may lose a bit more work to RB Jahmyr Gibbs this season. But, even then, Montgomery’s goal-line role will make him a good bet to pay off this price tag. He finished sixth among RBs with 10.8 expected rushing TDs last year and third with 13 actual scores.

Other options

• Raheem Mostert
• Calvin Ridley
• Evan Engram

Rounds 8 & 9

Top targets: Jayden Daniels & Jonathon Brooks

Daniels' combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. Washington is a nice landing spot, with a solid group of weapons and an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game as a rookie back in 2019.

Brooks is our top-rated rookie in the 2024 RB class– and the Panthers made him the first RB off the board.He's recovering from a November ACL tear but is expected to be ready for the start of the season. The 6'0, 216-pounder has three-down potential and finds weak competition in Carolina’s backfield. There’s top-20 Half PPR upside here.

Next Best: Javonte Williams & DeAndre Hopkins

Blame the 2022 multi-ligament knee injury for Williams’ inefficient 2023. He should be much closer to pre-injury form this season. Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 59 passes across his first 21 NFL games.

The Titans paid up for WR Calvin Ridley in free agency -- but Hopkins easily beat Ridley in key metrics last year such as yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. We're betting on Hopkins leading the team in targets this season. And the Titans figure to pass significantly more this year with the hiring of HC Brian Callahan.

Other options

• Jaylen Warren
• Christian Watson
• Diontae Johnson
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Jake Ferguson

Rounds 10 & 11

Top targets: Tyjae Spears & Courtland Sutton

Despite the addition of free-agent RB Tony Pollard, the Titans coaching staff has made it clear that Spears will remain significantly involved this year. He certainly earned a 2024 role with strong rookie season. Spears racked up 52 catches and averaged a strong 4.5 yards per carry.

Sutton isn't an exciting pick, but he looks like a value here. He's coming off a WR30 Half PPR finish and could see a target boost this year with the departure of WR Jerry Jeudy.

Next Best: Pat Freiermuth & Tyler Lockett

Freiermuth is coming off a disappointing 2023, but this offseason was good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.

Lockett is on the decline, finishing with his fewest Half PPR points last year since 2017. But he still ranked 35th at his position and is now outside the top 50 WRs in ADP.

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• Chase Brown
• Mike Williams

Rounds 12 & 13

Top targets: Kendre Miller & Gabe Davis

Don’t expect Davis to become a consistent week-to-week producer in Jacksonville. But he should continue to provide spike performances. Davis finished as a top-15 Half PPR WR six times last season.

Next Best: Ty Chandler & Jahan Dotson

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved after a nice finish to 2023. But his real upside is as a handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons.

Dotson is coming off a disappointing 2023 season but is now super cheap for a 24-year-old, former first-round pick. Curtis Samuel’s departure means Dotson is essentially locked into a top-two WR job. And Washington upgraded at QB with the selection of Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick of this spring's draft.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Antonio Gibson
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Brandin Cooks
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Luke Musgrave

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top target: High-upside bench stash, K & DST

Prioritize players with difference-making ceilings with your Round 14 selection. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight such players.

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

Half PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 4, 5, or 6

Round 1

Top target: Justin Jefferson

Injuries cost Jefferson seven games and parts of two others last year. But he averaged 20.3 Half PPR points in the other eight, which would have led all WRs.

Jefferson also set career highs last year in:

• Target share (30.0% in eight healthy games)
• Yards per route run
• Pro Football Focus receiving grade

The departure of QB Kirk Cousins is a slight concern for Jefferson's outlook. But note that he averaged 7.5 catches, 119 yards, and 0.5 TDs across four healthy games without Cousins last year.

Next best: Ja’Marr Chase

Chase averaged 7.7 catches, 91 yards, and 0.6 TDs per game with a healthy Joe Burrow over the first nine games of last season.

Chase remains an elite talent in the prime of his career. He’s a safe pick with the upside to lead all WRs in fantasy points.

Other options

• Breece Hall
• Bijan Robinson

Round 2

Top target: Derrick Henry

This is a nice range for RB value in Half PPR drafts, with Henry leading the way.

He remained effective as a workhorse last year, ranking top five in carries (280), rushing yards (1,167), and rushing TDs (12). Now he get a big upgrade in supporting cast in Baltimore, where the Ravens have finished top seven in points in all three seasons QB Lamar Jackson has made 13+ starts.

Next best: Travis Etienne

Etienne is coming off a RB4 finish in Half PPR points, tallying the fourth-most carries and seventh-most targets among RBs. Tank Bigsby will need to be much better this season to take significant work from Etienne, a 25-year-old former first-round pick.

Other option

• De’Von Achane

Round 3

Top target: Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco finished 15th among RBs in Half PPR points per game last year – and was even better in games without RB Jerick McKinnon, who remains unsigned.

With mega-bust Clyde Edwards-Helaire behind him on the depth chart, Pacheco is in for a heavy workload on a high-scoring Chiefs offense.

Next best: Deebo Samuel

Samuel finished 13th among WRs in total Half PPR points last year; ninth in points per game. He remains one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football – but also a good bet for WR1-level production when he’s on the field.

Other options

• Jalen Hurts
• Jaylen Waddle

Round 4

Top target: Cooper Kupp

Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between him and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests.

In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94. Kupp's 111.9 Half PPR points per game in those outings ranked 20th among WRs.

Next best: Joe Mixon

The Texans traded for Mixon this offseason and then signed him to a three-year, $27 million extension. That all points to Mixon operating as the clear lead back for a Texans offense that could be among the league’s best in QB C.J. Stroud's second season.

Other options

• Ken Walker
• James Cook
• D.K. Metcalf
• Mark Andrews

Round 5

Top target: Tee Higgins

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He's an easy bounce-back bet this year with better health for both he and QB Joe Burrow.

Remember that Higgins ranked top-14 in Half PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022. He's still just 25.

Next best: James Conner

Conner remained excellent in his age-28 season last year. In fact, he set career highs and ranked top 5 among 49 qualifying RBs in:

• Yards per carry
• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Yards after contact per attempt
• PFF rushing grade

Conner finished 11th at his position in Half PPR points per game. Despite the addition of rookie Trey Benson, expect Conner to again be Arizona's clear lead back in 2024.

Other options

• Anthony Richardson
• Tank Dell
• Dalton Kincaid

Round 6

Top target: Christian Kirk

Kirk finished 31st among WRs in Half PPR points per game last year – after ranking 19th in his 2022 Jaguars debut.

The departure of WR Calvin Ridley, who finished second on the team with 136 targets last year, could mean a volume boost for Kirk.

Next best: Rhamondre Stevenson

After a slow start last year, Stevenson scored as a top-15 RB over his final six healthy games.

The four-year, $36 million extension he signed earlier this offseason indicates that New England's new coaching staff views Stevenson as their lead back, despite the addition of RB Antonio Gibson.

Other options

• David Montgomery
• Terry McLaurin
• Evan Engram

Round 7

Top target: Chris Godwin

Godwin scored just twice last year but ranked 15th among WRs in catches (83) and 23rd in receiving yards (1,024). Despite the poor TD luck, he finished 32nd among WRs in Half PPR points.

He’s expected to play more in the slot in new OC Liam Coen’s scheme, which should help Godwin’s efficiency and week-to-week consistency.

Next best: Dak Prescott

Prescott’s future in Dallas beyond 2024 might be uncertain, but he’s a strong fantasy value for this year.

He's coming off a QB3 finish and returns his top three targets in WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Jake Ferguson, and WR Brandin Cooks.

A shaky RB corps might push Dallas even more toward the pass this season.

Other options

• Raheem Mostert
• Calvin Ridley

Round 8

Top target: Jonathon Brooks

Brooks is a rookie RB with a limited college resume coming off a torn ACL.

But there are lots of reasons to love him as a Round 8 pick:

• Brooks was awesome in his 10 games as Texas' feature back last year, averaging 114 rushing yards and 29 receiving yards per game.
• Carolina traded up to make him the first RB off the board in this spring's draft.
• He joins a backfield with weak competition from Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders.
• New Panthers HC Dave Canales just helped Rachaad White to a breakout season.

Next best: DeAndre Hopkins

The Titans paid up for WR Calvin Ridley in free agency -- but Hopkins easily beat Ridley in key metrics last year such as yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. We're betting on Hopkins leading the team in targets this season. And the Titans figure to pass significantly more this year with the hiring of HC Brian Callahan.

Other options

• Javonte Williams
• Jaylen Warren
• Diontae Johnson
• Jake Ferguson

Round 9

Top target: Jayden Daniels

Daniels’ ADP is sitting in the middle of Round 10, so you could gamble that he makes it to your next pick. But we’d rather just secure him here.

The rookie’s combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. Washington is a nice landing spot, with a solid group of weapons and an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game as a rookie back in 2019.

Next best: Dallas Goedert

Goedert is coming off an underwhelming 2023 season, missing three games and finishing 12th among TE in Half PPR points per game.

But that followed TE10 and TE5 finishes the previous two years. Goedert should remain a big part of a high-scoring Eagles offense that figures to play faster this season under new OC Kellen Moore.

Other options

• Brian Robinson
• Tyjae Spears
• Christian Watson
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Round 10

Top target: Courtland Sutton

Sutton isn't an exciting pick, but he looks like a value here.

He's coming off a WR30 Half PPR finish and could see a target boost this year with the departure of WR Jerry Jeudy.

Next best: Tyler Lockett

Lockett is on the decline, finishing with his fewest Half PPR points last year since 2017. But he still ranked 35th at his position and is now outside the top 50 WRs in ADP.

New OC Ryan Grubb is expected to bring a more aggressive passing attack to Seattle.

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• Chase Brown

Round 11

Top target: Pat Freiermuth

Highlight Freiermuth as a Round 11 target if you’re still looking for your TE1.

He’s coming off a disappointing 2023, but this offseason was good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.

Next best: Mike Williams

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

Williams’ low-volume, high-TD projection makes him especially valuable in Half PPR drafts.

Other options

• Zach Charbonnet
• Jerome Ford

Round 12

Top target: Kendre Miller

Injuries marred Miller's rookie season. He dealt with knee, hamstring, and ankle injuries, missing nine regular-season games.

But he was an exciting prospect heading into the league last offseason, running for 1,399 yards and 17 TDs on 6.2 yards per carry as a junior in 2022.And he flashed in last year's finale with 73 yards and a score on 13 carries (6.0 YPC)

Miller finds himself in a 2024 Saints backfield with a pair of declining veterans in Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams. The youngster could capture a big role and is a top value pick near the end of fantasy drafts.

Next best: Rashid Shaheed

Shaheed has flashed in limited opportunities through two NFL seasons, averaging a huge 11.1 yards per target.

He looks like the Saints' clear No. 2 WR heading into 2024 and should find himself in a more creative offense under new OC Klint Kubiak.

Shaheed notably drew a 16.0% target share in six games without WR Michael Thomas last year (vs. 12.1% in nine games with Thomas).

Other options

• MarShawn Lloyd
• Gabe Davis
• Luke Musgrave

Round 13

Top target: Ty Chandler

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved after a nice finish to 2023.

But his real upside is as a handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons.

Next best: Jahan Dotson

Dotson is coming off a disappointing 2023 season but is now super cheap for a 24-year-old, former first-round pick.

Curtis Samuel’s departure means Dotson is essentially locked into a top-two WR job. And Washington upgraded at QB with the selection of Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick of this spring's draft.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Antonio Gibson
• Kimani Vidal
• Brandin Cooks
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Marvin Mims

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top target: High-upside bench stash, K & DST

Prioritize players with difference-making ceilings with your Round 14 selection. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight such players.

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

Half PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 7, 8, or 9

Round 1

Top target: Breece Hall

Hall is coming off a RB3 finish in Half PPR points ... a year after tearing an ACL ... on an offense that lost QB Aaron Rodgers and finished bottom four in total yards and points.

Rodgers is back for 2024, and the Jets made some significant upgrades on the offensive line this offseason.

Hall has the upside to challenge Christian McCaffrey for the RB scoring lead.

Next best: Bijan Robinson

Robinson’s rookie campaign felt a little underwhelming – but he still finished ninth among RBs in Half PPR points.

The change from Arthur Smith to Zac Robinson’s offense should mean a more fantasy-friendly role. Robinson spent the last five seasons working under Sean McVay, whose offense has produced a bunch of big RB seasons.

Other options

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Puka Nacua

Round 2

Top target: Kyren Williams

It might feel a bit unnerving to spend a first- or second-round pick on a guy who was a waiver-wire darling just a year ago. But Williams was excellent last season, ranking top-10 among 49 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt, rush yards over expected per attempt, and Pro Football Focus rushing grade.

Just as importantly, Williams’ volume was excellent. Only Christian McCaffrey averaged more expected PPR points per game.

Rookie RB Blake Corum figures to cut into that volume a bit. But we’re expecting Williams to remain the Rams’ clear lead back.

Next best: Drake London

London disappointed fantasy owners last year but remained strong on a per-target and per-route basis.

Now he's freed from Arthur Smith and in what should be a much pass-heavier offense under new HC Zac Robinson. And he got a big QB upgrade with the arrival of Kirk Cousins.

It sets London up for a career-best season in 2024.

Other options

• Derrick Henry
• Travis Etienne

Round 3

Top target: Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco finished 15th among RBs in Half PPR points per game last year – and was even better in games without RB Jerick McKinnon, who remains unsigned.

With mega-bust Clyde Edwards-Helaire behind him on the depth chart, Pacheco is in for a heavy workload on a high-scoring Chiefs offense.

We wouldn’t shy away from opening your draft with three straight RBs if they happen to be the best available players.

Next best: Deebo Samuel

Samuel finished 13th among WRs in total Half PPR points last year; ninth in points per game.

He remains one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football – but also a good bet for WR1-level production when he’s on the field. Getting him in Round 3 is a fair injury-risk discount.

Other options

• Jalen Hurts
• Jaylen Waddle

Round 4

Top target: Cooper Kupp

Next best: Malik Nabers

Yes, QB play is a concern in New York. But Nabers should quickly emerge as the top option in the Giants offense – and potentially even a true target hog.

The No. 6 overall pick of this spring’s draft is explosive before and after the catch, averaging 17.6 yards per reception in his huge 2023 junior season at LSU.

Other options

• Rachaad White
• Joe Mixon
• Mark Andrews

Round 5

Top target: Tee Higgins

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He's an easy bounce-back bet this year with better health for both he and QB Joe Burrow.

Don't forget that Higgins ranked top-14 in Half PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022. He's still just 25.

Next best: James Conner

Conner remained excellent in his age-28 season last year. In fact, he set career highs and ranked top 5 among 49 qualifying RBs in:

• Yards per carry
• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Yards after contact per attempt
• PFF rushing grade

Conner finished 11th at his position in Half PPR points per game. Despite the addition of rookie Trey Benson, expect Conner to again be Arizona's clear lead back in 2024.

Other options

• Anthony Richardson
• Amari Cooper
• Dalton Kincaid

Round 6

Top target: Rhamondre Stevenson

After a slow start last year, Stevenson scored as a top-15 RB over his final six healthy games.

The four-year, $36 million extension he signed earlier this offseason indicates that New England's new coaching staff views Stevenson as their lead back, despite the addition of RB Antonio Gibson.

Next best: Christian Kirk

If you already have three RBs, Kirk is the pick here.

He’s coming off a WR31 finish in Half PPR points per game last year – after ranking 19th in his 2022 Jaguars debut.

The departure of WR Calvin Ridley, who finished second on the team with 136 targets last year, could mean a volume boost for Kirk.

Other options

• Joe Burrow
• David Montgomery
• Terry McLaurin
• George Kittle

Round 7

Top target: Chris Godwin

Godwin scored just twice last year but ranked 15th among WRs in catches (83) and 23rd in receiving yards (1,024). Despite the poor TD luck, he finished 32nd among WRs in Half PPR points.

He’s expected to play more in the slot in new OC Liam Coen’s scheme, which should help Godwin’s efficiency and week-to-week consistency.

Next best: Raheem Mostert

Mostert is coming off a career-best season, finishing second among RBs in Half PPR points in HC Mike McDaniel’s diabolical scheme.

There are obvious regression and durability concerns heading into 2024 – but those are more than baked into Mostert’s Round 7 price tag.

Other options

• Tony Pollard
• Calvin Ridley

Round 8

Top target: Jonathon Brooks

Brooks is a rookie RB with a limited college resume coming off a torn ACL.

But there are lots of reasons to love him as a Round 8 pick:

• Brooks was awesome in his 10 games as Texas' feature back last year, averaging 114 rushing yards and 29 receiving yards per game.
• Carolina traded up to make him the first RB off the board in this spring's draft.
• He joins a backfield with weak competition from Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders.
• New Panthers HC Dave Canales just helped Rachaad White to a breakout season.

Next best: DeAndre Hopkins

The Titans paid up for WR Calvin Ridley in free agency -- but Hopkins easily beat Ridley in key metrics last year such as yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

We're betting on Hopkins leading the team in targets this season. And the Titans figure to pass significantly more this year with the hiring of HC Brian Callahan.

Other options

• Javonte Williams
• Jaylen Warren
• Diontae Johnson
• Jake Ferguson

Round 9

Top target: Jayden Daniels

Daniels’ ADP is sitting in the middle of Round 10, so you could gamble that he makes it to your next pick. But we’d rather just secure him here.

The rookie’s combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. Washington is a nice landing spot, with a solid group of weapons and an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game as a rookie back in 2019.

Next best: Dallas Goedert

Goedert is coming off an underwhelming 2023 season, missing three games and finishing 12th among TE in Half PPR points per game.

But that followed TE10 and TE5 finishes the previous two years. Goedert should remain a big part of a high-scoring Eagles offense that figures to play faster this season under new OC Kellen Moore.

Other options

• Brian Robinson
• Christian Watson
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Round 10

Top target: Tyjae Spears

Despite the addition of free-agent RB Tony Pollard, the Titans coaching staff has made it clear that Spears will remain significantly involved this year.

He certainly earned a 2024 role with strong rookie season. Spears racked up 52 catches and averaged a strong 4.5 yards per carry.

Next best: Courtland Sutton

Sutton isn't an exciting pick, but he looks like a value here.

He's coming off a WR30 Half PPR finish and could see a target boost this year with the departure of WR Jerry Jeudy.

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• Chase Brown
• Tyler Lockett

Round 11

Top target: Pat Freiermuth

Highlight Freiermuth as a Round 11 target if you’re still looking for your TE1.

He’s coming off a disappointing 2023, but this offseason was good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.

Next best: Mike Williams

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

Williams’ low-volume, high-TD projection makes him especially valuable in Half PPR drafts.

Other options

• Zach Charbonnet
• Jerome Ford
• Jerry Jeudy

Round 12

Top target: Kendre Miller

Injuries marred Miller's rookie season. He dealt with knee, hamstring, and ankle injuries, missing nine regular-season games.

But he was an exciting prospect heading into the league last offseason, running for 1,399 yards and 17 TDs on 6.2 yards per carry as a junior in 2022.And he flashed in last year's finale with 73 yards and a score on 13 carries (6.0 YPC)

Miller finds himself in a 2024 Saints backfield with a pair of declining veterans in Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams. The youngster could capture a big role and is a top value pick near the end of fantasy drafts.

Next best: Rashid Shaheed

Shaheed has flashed in limited opportunities through two NFL seasons, averaging a huge 11.1 yards per target.

He looks like the Saints' clear No. 2 WR heading into 2024 and should find himself in a more creative offense under new OC Klint Kubiak.

Shaheed notably drew a 16.0% target share in six games without WR Michael Thomas last year (vs. 12.1% in nine games with Thomas).

Other options

• MarShawn Lloyd
• Gabe Davis
• Luke Musgrave

Round 13

Top target: Ty Chandler

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved after a nice finish to 2023.

But his real upside is as a handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons.

Next best: Jahan Dotson

Dotson is coming off a disappointing 2023 season but is now super cheap for a 24-year-old, former first-round pick.

Curtis Samuel’s departure means Dotson is essentially locked into a top-two WR job. And Washington upgraded at QB with the selection of Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick of this spring's draft.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Antonio Gibson
• Kimani Vidal
• Brandin Cooks
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Marvin Mims

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top target: High-upside bench stash, K & DST

Prioritize players with difference-making ceilings with your Round 14 selection. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight such players.

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

Half PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 10, 11, or 12

Rounds 1 & 2

Top targets: Jonathan Taylor & Puka Nacua

Despite ankle and thumb injuries, Taylor finished sixth among RBs in Half PPR points per game last year. He’s still in his prime at 25 and will remain a huge part of an ascending Colts offense.

Nacua is coming off a historic rookie season, scoring the third most PPR points by a first-year WR in NFL history. The two guys ahead of him on that list: Randy Moss and Ja’Marr Chase.

Returning to the same offense with the same QB as an ascending 23-year-old, Nacua is a safe bet for WR1 production with upside into the top-5.

Next best: Jahmyr Gibbs & Saquon Barkley

Gibbs finished 10th among RBs in Half PPR points per game as a rookie last year.

He did a ton of damage in the passing game, ranking top 10 among RBs in targets (71) and catches (51). And his share of Detroit's rushing work grew as the season went on. Gibbs went from a 29% carry share over the first half of the season 42% over the second.

Barkley turned 288 touches (in 14 games) into a RB8 finish in Half PPR points per game last year. Now he gets a huge upgrade in situation going from New York to Philadelphia.

Other options

• Garrett Wilson
• Kyren Williams

Rounds 3 & 4

Top targets: Isiah Pacheco & Deebo Samuel

Pacheco finished 15th among RBs in Half PPR points per game last year – and was even better in games without RB Jerick McKinnon, who remains unsigned. With mega-bust Clyde Edwards-Helaire behind him on the depth chart, Pacheco is in for a heavy workload on a high-scoring Chiefs offense.

Samuel finished 13th among WRs in total Half PPR points last year; ninth in points per game. He remains one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football – but also a good bet for WR1-level production when he’s on the field.

Next best: Jaylen Waddle & Cooper Kupp

Waddle missed three games and parts of a couple more last season. And he scored on just four of 72 catches – a well-below-average 5.6% TD rate.

But Waddle still finished 22nd among WRs in PPR points per game, setting a career high and ranking eighth among 84 qualifying WRs in yards per route run.

This is a young, explosive WR in a strong offense that still boasts WR1 upside.

Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between him and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests.

In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94. Kupp's 111.9 Half PPR points per game in those outings ranked 20th among WRs.

Other options

• Jalen Hurts
• Joe Mixon
• Mark Andrews

Rounds 5 & 6

Top targets: James Conner & Tee Higgins

Conner remained excellent in his age-28 season last year. In fact, he set career highs and ranked top 5 among 49 qualifying RBs in:

• Yards per carry
• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Yards after contact per attempt
• PFF rushing grade

Conner finished 11th at his position in Half PPR points per game. Despite the addition of rookie Trey Benson, expect Conner to again be Arizona's clear lead back in 2024.

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He's an easy bounce-back bet this year with better health for both he and QB Joe Burrow.

Don't forget that Higgins ranked top-14 in Half PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022. He's still just 25.

Next best: Rhamondre Stevenson & Anthony Richardson

After a slow start last year, Stevenson scored as a top-15 RB over his final six healthy games. The four-year, $36 million extension he signed earlier this offseason indicates that New England's new coaching staff views Stevenson as their lead back, despite the addition of RB Antonio Gibson.

Richardson boasts exciting upside. He has a big arm, elite rushing upside, and plays under proven talent maximizer Shane Steichen. Richardson has the potential to push Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen for the QB scoring lead. Just note that we'll find plenty more QB value in the next few rounds.

Other options

• David Montgomery
• Amari Cooper
• Christian Kirk
• George Kittle
• Kyle Pitts

Rounds 7 & 8

Top targets: Raheem Mostert & Jonathon Brooks

This is a strong range for RB value.

Mostert is coming off a career-best season, finishing second among RBs in Half PPR points in HC Mike McDaniel’s diabolical scheme. There are obvious regression and durability concerns heading into 2024 – but those are more than baked into Mostert’s Round 7 price tag.

Brooks is our top-rated rookie in the 2024 RB class– and the Panthers made him the first RB off the board.He's recovering from a November ACL tear but is expected to be ready for the start of the season. The 6'0, 216-pounder has three-down potential and finds weak competition in Carolina’s backfield. There’s top-20 Half PPR upside here.

Next best: Javonte Williams & DeAndre Hopkins

Blame the 2022 multi-ligament knee injury for Williams’ inefficient 2023. He should be much closer to pre-injury form this season. Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 59 passes across his first 21 NFL games.

The Titans paid up for WR Calvin Ridley in free agency -- but Hopkins easily beat Ridley in key metrics last year such as yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. We're betting on Hopkins leading the team in targets this season. And the Titans figure to pass significantly more this year with the hiring of HC Brian Callahan.

Other options

• Tony Pollard
• Chris Godwin
• Calvin Ridley
• Jake Ferguson
• David Njoku

Rounds 9 & 10

Top targets: Jayden Daniels & Dallas Goedert

Daniels’ combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside.

Washington is a nice landing spot, with a solid group of weapons and an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game as a rookie back in 2019.

Goedert is coming off an underwhelming 2023 season, missing three games and finishing 12th among TE in Half PPR points per game.

But that followed TE10 and TE5 finishes the previous two years. Goedert should remain a big part of a high-scoring Eagles offense that figures to play faster this season under new OC Kellen Moore.

Next best: Brian Robinson & Christian Watson

Robinson's upside is capped by RB Austin Ekeler, who figures to handle most of the pass-catching work out of Washington's backfield. But Robinson is a good bet to control rushing work. He beat Ekeler last year in every major rushing efficiency metric, including rush yards over expected per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, and Pro Football Focus Elusive Rating.

Watson's hamstrings were a problem again last year, but he remained in a very fantasy-friendly role when healthy. Watson registered a big 15.6-yard average target depth. And his 15 end-zone targets led the Packers and ranked sixth among all WRs, despite Watson missing eight games. There's still exciting upside here if he can stay on the field.

Other options

• Tyjae Spears
• Courtland Sutton
• Tyler Lockett
• Jameson Williams

Rounds 11 & 12

Top targets: Kendre Miller & Mike Williams

Injuries got in the way of Miller's rookie season. But he was an exciting prospect heading into the league last offseason and flashed in the season finale. Miller finds himself in a Saints backfield this year with a pair of declining veterans in Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams.

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

Williams’ low-volume, high-TD projection makes him especially valuable in Half PPR drafts.

Next best: Pat Freiermuth & Zach Charbonnet

Prioritize Freiermuth if you’re still looking for your TE1.

He’s coming off a disappointing 2023, but this offseason was good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.

We’ll see if Charbonnet can steal work from RB Ken Walker under Seattle’s new coaching staff. But he’s at least a high-end handcuff. Charbonnet totaled 48 carries and 12 targets in the three games Walker missed last year, finishing those weeks RB21, RB33, and RB11 in half-PPR points.

Our Injury Predictor projects Walker for 1.9 games missed this season.

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• Jerome Ford
• Jerry Jeudy
• Gabe Davis
• Rashid Shaheed
• Luke Musgrave

Rounds 13 & 14

Top targets: Ty Chandler & Jahan Dotson

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved after a nice finish to 2023. But his real upside is as a handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons.

Dotson is coming off a disappointing 2023 season but is now super cheap for a 24-year-old, former first-round pick. Curtis Samuel’s departure means Dotson is essentially locked into a top-two WR job. And Washington upgraded at QB with the selection of Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick of this spring's draft.

Next best: Brandin Cooks & Dontayvion Wicks

Cooks got off to a slow-ish start with the Cowboys last year. But he ranked 14th among WRs in PPR points from Week 10 on. The offseason departure of WR Michael Gallup – plus a shaky backfield – could mean more targets for Cooks in 2024.

Wicks beat both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in targets per route and yards per route as a rookie last year. He has a chance in 2024 to win a top-three WR job on an ascending Packers offense.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Antonio Gibson
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Kimani Vidal
• Jaleel McLaughlin
• Marvin Mims

Rounds 15 & 16

Top targets: K & DST

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

The Ultimate Half PPR Draft Strategy Guide: A Customized, Dynamic Cheat Sheet

Having round-by-round strategy heading into your draft is important.

But fantasy football drafts are unpredictable. You need to be nimble. You need to adjust on the fly to capture the most value.

You need a customized, dynamic cheat sheet.

The Draft War Room takes our award-winning player projections and applies them to your league’s exact rules to give you a precise set of rankings.

Then it recalibrates throughout your draft based on 17 value indicators to make sure you’re making the absolute best pick each time you’re on the clock.

CREATE YOUR DRAFT WAR ROOM NOW!